No country in the world holds as much debt as Japan, which has well over $1 trillion in U.S. government treasuries alone. Even the slightest shift to Japan’s low interest rates reverberates well beyond its borders, with the potential to drive up rates globally.
So when the Bank of Japan on Friday loosened its grip on a benchmark government bond, it was big news for investors everywhere.
The surprise move was the latest signal that the country may revise its longstanding commitment to cheap money, meant to spur Japan’s sluggish economic growth, as rising interest rates abroad have driven up inflation and weakened the yen.
In an announcement after a two-day policy meeting, the bank said it would take a more flexible approach to controlling yields on 10-year government bonds, effectively allowing them to slip above the current ceiling of 0.5 percent.
After the meeting, Kazuo Ueda, the bank’s governor, told reporters that the bank remained committed to its monetary easing and intended to stay the course on policies meant to keep money cheap and plentiful for borrowers in the world’s third-largest economy.
Nevertheless, many analysts saw Friday’s decision as a step toward the eventual abandonment of the bank’s bond controls, a centerpiece of a yearslong effort to stimulate stagnant profit and wage growth.
Such a move could ripple through global markets, which have become accustomed to relying on Japanese lenders for better rates than they can find at home. Markets have been sensitive to even a hint of change: A news report predicting a shift in bond policy caused a surge in benchmark borrowing costs around the world.
When the actual news hit, rates on Japan’s 10-year government bond rocketed to their highest levels in nine years. Japanese stocks ended the day down slightly.
Friday’s adjustment followed months of speculation that the Bank of Japan could move to tighten lending, after a decision in December to double the 10-year bond’s trading range to plus-or-minus 0.5 percent.
That change led to a speculative assault on the new yield target, forcing the bank to spend big in an effort to hold the line.
That experience probably informed the board’s new approach, said Stefan Angrick, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in Japan.
“The December tweak kind of blew up on them,” he said. Rather than taking pressure off the bank, the policymakers “had to come into the market and push back even harder.”
The most likely outcome of Friday’s change is that the bank will “gradually reduce” its bond purchases while letting rates rise incrementally, Ayako Fujita, Japan chief economist at J.P. Morgan, wrote in an analyst note.
In its statement, the Bank of Japan said it would offer to buy 10-year bonds at twice the previous rate, a move that many analysts saw as a stealth attempt to allow bonds to trade at significantly higher yields.
In an analyst note, Naohiko Baba, chief Japan economist at Goldman Sachs, described the decision as “effectively akin to a rate hike.” But, he added, officials packaged it in a novel form because they “did not want the market to interpret it as the start of full-blown tightening.”
Sayuri Shirai, a professor of economics at Keio University and former member of the bank’s board, said she was surprised by the new approach and was concerned that it “created ambiguity” that could backfire.
Speculators will “try to test them,” she said, adding that “the next speculation will be about abandoning this target range.”
The bank’s ultra-easy monetary policy is aimed at attaining an inflation rate of 2 percent over time, driven by consumer and business demand, a level policymakers believe would lift both corporate profits and wages in a virtuous cycle.
Inflation in Japan has exceeded that target for more than a year, hitting 3.3 percent in June. But Mr. Ueda has questioned whether the price increases — which have been largely attributed to the aftereffects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine — will last, leading most analysts to expect that a policy tweak would not happen until later this year.
In a statement, the bank said it expected inflation to reach around 2.5 percent in fiscal year 2023, an increase from its previous forecast of 1.8. It cited “cost increases led by the past rise in import prices” as the main factor in the change.
In the longer term, however, it expects inflation will drop below the 2 percent target in 2025.
Controlling bond yields has been one of the central elements of Japan’s monetary easing policies.
The 10-year bond plays a key role in setting Japanese lending rates, which policymakers have sought to keep at rock bottom as part of their efforts to stimulate economic growth by making money cheaper for borrowers.
The effort has come at a high cost: To keep yields down, the bank has had to spend enormous sums on purchasing its own bonds.
The Bank of Japan has come under increasing pressure over the last year as other central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, began raising rates in an effort to battle inflation stemming from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On Wednesday, the Fed raised interest rates a quarter point to 5.5 percent, their highest level in 22 years.
Inflation in Japan never reached the heights seen in the United States and Europe. But rising interest rates abroad substantially weakened the yen, as money flowed out of the country in search of higher returns. That worsened inflation in Japan, which is highly dependent on exports for food and energy.
Nonetheless, the bank stood firm, resisting both domestic calls to intervene and assaults by speculators hoping to profit by betting against Japan’s ability to defend its yield target.
Friday’s move is likely to put more pressure on the bank as markets seek to test its commitment to the new approach, potentially leading to further loosening or even a complete abandonment of the strategy.
But unwinding Japan’s easy-money policy will not be quick or easy. Years of low rates mean that even small interest rate increases could be costly for households and businesses, which have come to rely on easy access to low-cost loans.